Political instability in Europe and further afield affected investment markets in December. Read on to find out what other factors may have influenced your investment returns at the end of 2024.

Remember to focus on your long-term goals when assessing the performance of your investments. The value of your assets rising and falling is part of investing. What’s important is that the risk profile is appropriate for you and that your decisions align with your circumstances and aspirations.

UK

Hopes that the Bank of England (BoE) would cut its base interest rate before the end of 2024 were dashed when data showed inflation had increased.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show inflation was 2.6% in the 12 months to November 2024, which was up from the 2.3% recorded a month earlier.

This led to the BoE deciding to hold interest rates despite speculation that a cut was on the horizon. The central bank also said it expects GDP growth to be weaker at the end of 2024 than it had previously predicted.

Data paints a gloomy picture for the manufacturing sector.

According to S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), UK manufacturing hit a nine-month low as output fell for the first time in seven months in November 2024. The decline was driven by new orders falling. Notably, manufacturers are struggling to export their goods, with new orders contracting for 31 consecutive months. Demand has fallen in key markets, including the US, China, the EU, and Middle East.

A survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) indicates that manufacturers aren’t optimistic about the future either. The organisation said orders at UK factories “collapsed” in December to their lowest level since the height of the pandemic in 2020. The slump was linked to political instability in some European markets and uncertainty over US trade policy when Donald Trump becomes president.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves wants to reduce UK trade barriers with the US, stating she wanted to end the “fractious” post-Brexit accord as she went to meet eurozone finance ministers at the start of the month. Closer ties with the EU may benefit some firms that are struggling with exports.

Retailers are also experiencing challenges.

The festive period is often crucial for retailers. Yet, data from Rendle Intelligence and Insights are “bleak” with footfall in the first two weeks of December down 3.1% when compared to 2023. A slew of high street names entered administration in 2024, including Homebase, The Body Shop, and Ted Baker, and the research suggests more could follow suit in the year ahead.

December was a month of ups and downs for investors in the UK stock market.

The month started strong when stock markets increased across Europe on 3 December – dubbed a “Santa rally” in the media. The FTSE 100 – an index of the 100 largest firms on the London Stock Exchange – was up 0.7% despite worries about the economic outlook. EasyJet led the way with a 4% boost.

Yet, just mere weeks later, on 17 December, the FTSE 100 hit a three-week low and lost 0.7%. The biggest faller was Bunzl, a distribution and outsourcing company, which fell 4.6% when it warned persistent deflation would weigh on profits in 2024.

While it might have felt like a bumpy year as an investor, research shows the FTSE 100 has performed well. Indeed, according to AJ Bell, the index had its best year since 2021 and delivered a return of 11.4%. The top performers were NatWest and Rolls-Royce, while JD Sports and B&M were at the bottom of the pack.

Europe

Much like the UK, the manufacturing sector in the eurozone is struggling. Indeed, PMI data shows the sector continued to contract in November 2024 as new factory orders fell. Germany recorded the fastest drop in output and, as the bloc’s largest economy, could drag economic data down.

Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, told the Guardian: “These numbers look terrible. It’s like the eurozone’s manufacturing recession is never going to end.”

Credit ratings firm Moody’s unexpectedly downgraded French government bonds, which are now rated Aa3 – the fourth highest rating – following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government. MPs had refused to accept tax hikes and spending cuts in Barnier’s Budget.

Moody’s said: “Looking ahead, there is now very low probability that the next government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year. As a result, we forecast that France’s public finances will be materially weaker over the next three years compared to our October 2024 baseline scenario.”

The news, unsurprisingly, led to French bonds weakening.

European markets also benefited from the so-called Santa rally on 3 December.

Germany’s DAX, a stock index of the 30 largest German companies on the Frankfurt Exchange, broke the 20,000-point barrier for the first time, despite a new election being called after the government collapsed. The recent boost means the DAX increased by around 3,000 points during 2024.

Similarly, Paris’s stock market index, the CAC, gained 0.6%. Luxury goods makers, like Hermes and LVMH, were among the biggest risers.

US

Unlike Europe, US manufacturing could give investors something to be optimistic about.

The PMI reading for November 2024 was 49.7, up from 48.5. While this means the sector is still below the 50-mark indicating growth, the signs suggest it’s stabilising and could move into more positive territory in the new year.

The service sector paints an even better picture. The PMI indicated the sector is growing at its fastest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic. Expectations of higher output linked to growing optimism about business conditions under the Trump administration led to a flash PMI reading of 56.6 for December, comfortably placing the sector in growth territory.

The job market also bounced back after disappointing figures in October. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 227,000 jobs were added to the economy in November, compared to just 36,000 a month earlier.

Yet, inflation continues to weigh on the US. In the 12 months to November 2024, inflation increased slightly to 2.7%.

While the Federal Reserve went ahead with an interest rate cut, taking the base rate to 4.25%, it also suggested it would make fewer cuts than expected in 2025 if inflation remains stubborn. The comments led to the S&P 500 index closing almost 3% down, while the tech-focused Nasdaq fell 3.6% on 19 December.

President-elect Trump is set to take office on 20 January 2025, but his plans are already influencing markets. Indeed, on 2 December, the dollar rallied after Trump warned countries in the BRICS bloc that he would impose 100% tariffs if they challenged the US dollar by creating a new rival currency.

The BRICS bloc was originally composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, which led to the acronym. They have since been joined by Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Asia

In a move that shocked citizens, South Korea’s president declared martial law on 3 December, which led to political chaos. The uncertainty led to South Korea’s currency dropping to a two-year low and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which track the country’s shares, fell sharply. Indeed, the MSCI South Korea EFT dropped by more than 5% in the immediate aftermath.

Outside of South Korea, stock market performances were more positive in Asia.

On 9 December, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up by 2% after China said it would implement a more proactive fiscal policy and planned to loosen monetary policy in 2025. The market was also aided by consumer inflation in China falling to a five-month low in November to 0.2%.

On the same day, Japan revised its economic growth upwards, leading to a 0.3% boost to the Nikkei 225 index.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.